Author: WangJin (Unrest in Syria- New turning in the Middle East)

The United Nations General Assembly’s third committee, which is in charge of the humanitarian affairs, on Tuesday, condemning “grave and systematic human rights violations by the Syrian authorities” is of little help in solving the ongoing Syrian crisis.

The prolonged clashes between Syrian security forces and anti-government protesters, which broke out in March, have resulted in thousands of deaths, including civilians and soldiers.

With the help of external forces, the opposition has been growing increasingly stronger in its confrontation with the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

Army defectors and protesters have begun fighting back at government forces and even assaulted military bases. It seems that a civil war, which is the last thing the international community wants, is just around the corner.

Trying to repeat the “Libya model” in Syria is dangerous considering the geostrategic importance of the country in the Middle East and its intricate and delicate relations with neighboring countries, especially its close ties with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, all of which are hostile to the West.

Syria has long been seen as the region’s most combustible geopolitical flash point. President Assad has warned that Western powers risk causing an “earthquake” and that “any problem in Syria will burn the whole region”. Prolonged instability in Syria, not to mention regime change and a subsequent shift in diplomacy, will lead to the formation of new regional alliances and change the current balance of power in the Middle East.

When we look back to the history about 40 years ago, when Assad took power in 1970, the Arab countries were deeply influenced by the Arabic Nationalism Movement represented by the Nasserism and the independence movement against the West World, especially the United States. People at that time in the Middle East countries hold the motivation to create a new ideology and to build a new social model which can lead their country more prosperous. To achieve this goal, most countries in Middle East, like Syria, Libya, Iraq, following the Egyptian model, formed the centralized system. However, the centralized system evaluated into the dictator system, which makes people in the countries like Libya, Egypt, suffered a lot from pressure and autocratic regime.
From the Arab Spring to Syria unrest, we can see a very clear line that goes with the historical events, that is, the people regained the motivation and desire to follow the western regime to build a more prosperous country.

Democracy is the inevitable history wave in the Middle East; however, how to build a democratic country from the long ruling dictator system is a tough and complicated task. It is always easy to break down, while it is always difficult to create.

WangJin was an editor from the Oversea Center in China News Service (CNS, China’s second largest news agency), graduated from China Foreign Affairs University and now a MA candidate in Peace and Conflict Management Program in Haifa University.

Syrian Unrest Could Soon Bleed Over Into The Wider Middle East